Crypto Bettors Suffer Heavy Losses in Papal Conclave Prediction on Polymarket

Polymarket’s reputation for accurate predictions took a hit as bettors lost millions wagering on the papal succession. Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, the eventual winner, was given only 1% odds by the platform’s users—a stark contrast to the 28% probability assigned to favorite Pietro Parolin.

The $28 million in losing bets marks one of the largest mispredictions in the crypto prediction market’s history. This outcome challenges the growing narrative that decentralized forecasting platforms outperform traditional polling methods in high-stakes events.

While Polymarket has seen success in political and financial markets, this religious event proved particularly challenging for crowd wisdom. The platform continues to expand its offerings beyond typical crypto markets into global events, though this result may prompt reevaluation of risk models for unconventional prediction categories.